The Predictioneer’s Game

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First book in Game Theory I have read in a while.  Reminds me of my political science days.  Starts with the premise that people will do what is in their best interest.  Using that theory, Bruce goes on to use game theory to predict certain political outcomes.









Some of his predictions:

  • If the US guarantees not to attack North Korea and China guarantees to defend North Korea and if North Korea is given 1billion a year in assistance, they will give up their Nuclear Weapons Program.
  • If the US removes troops from Iraq, it will strengthen the conservatives in Iran.  However if the US leave a force of troops in Iraq, the conservatives in Iran will lose power.
  • If the Israel's shared their tourist tax revenue with the Palestinians, it would reduce terrorism in the Middle East.

I really liked the part of the book where he went back and saw what would have needed to be done to stop World War I.

Started reading The Day of Battle, By Rick Atkinson, the second part of this trilogy on World War II.